GRAPHICS

Areas of AQAP Control in Yemen

May 31, 2012 | 20:40 GMT

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(Stratfor)

Areas of AQAP Control in Yemen

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) is different from other regional al Qaeda groups in that it has not only claimed but also begun to govern select cities in southern Yemen. The heavy political unrest that began in Yemen in 2011 shifted the Yemeni government's focus away from AQAP and other violent groups while it attended to non-jihadist rebel movements and ongoing political turmoil. The resulting degree of lawlessness allowed AQAP to expand unchecked and take control of territory. AQAP has so far proclaimed "Islamic Emirates" in the cities of Shaqra, Jaar, Azzan and Zinjibar and controls several checkpoints and smaller cities throughout the southern provinces, where the government is largely absent.

Since the February election of new Yemeni President Abd Rabboh Mansour Hadi, the government has slowly begun to focus more of its time and resources on battling AQAP forces. In recent weeks, the United States and Saudi Arabia have backed Sanaa in an offensive against AQAP in the southern provinces, limiting the group's ability to operate in the open and coordinate attacks. While the offensive has temporarily disrupted AQAP's control in the region, it is unclear how long the Yemeni government will be able to continue the current intensity of its campaign. The United States, Saudi Arabia and Yemen face constraints that will limit their ability to suppress the militant group. In the long term, AQAP will likely continue to be a domestic and transnational threat as long as the Yemeni government and security apparatus remains divided and distracted, and is thus unable to devote the time and resources needed to root out the group.