While some progress toward a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is likely, disagreements on key areas will preclude the possibility of an agreement in the coming months, preserving the prospect of sudden military escalation. Speaking at the second Shusha Global Media Forum in Nagorno-Karabakh on July 20th, Azeri President Ilham Aliyev said that Armenian and Azerbaijani delegations have already agreed on up to 90% of the text of a peace treaty. However, Aliyev remarked that a number of Baku's conditions for a peace treaty remain unmet, including Armenia's dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, the largely defunct body responsible for facilitating a negotiated resolution to the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh since 1992 and, more notably, the necessity for amendments to the Armenian constitution removing reference to reunification with Nagorno-Karabakh. Aliyev also spoke of the need to develop regional transit corridors further to ensure lasting peace and...
