North Korea unexpectedly fired about 50 artillery shells on Nov. 23 at Yeonpyeongdo Island, killing at least two South Korean soldiers, wounding several other soldiers and civilians and destroying houses. South Korea responded by firing around 80 artillery shells of its own at the North. The whole exchange lasted for about two hours. The situation remains tense, with all South Korean military, transportation authorities and utilities companies on high alert for attacks. South Korean President Lee Myung Bak has vowed to retaliate if the North strikes again, threatening to take out North Korean missile bases near Pyongyang's coastline artillery positions. Yeonpyeongdo is one of five islands lying in the disputed maritime territory framed by the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the maritime extension of the Demilitarized Zone claimed by South Korea, and the Military Demarcation Line claimed by the North as the maritime border. North Korea has attempted several times to draw attention to the disputed sea border, ostensibly in a bid to revive talks towards a peace treaty to supplant the existing armistice that concluded the Korean War in 1953. There has been considerable movement on the Korean Peninsula in recent weeks. The North Koreans revealed a full-fledged uranium enrichment facility and new light-water reactor to a visiting American scientist; the South declared the cancellation of the Sunshine Policy that aimed at engagement and warming ties with North Korea; and yet both sides have made gestures towards renewing denuclearization talks, in keeping with signals from Russia, China, Japan and the United States. Over the past few decades North Korea has become almost predictable in its practice of orchestrating incidents and provocations just before negotiations start. But North Korea's behavior over the past two years has become increasingly aberrant, with the sinking of the South Korean corvette ChonAn in March being a prime example. As the North Korean regime makes way for a new leader, Kim Jong Il's son Kim Jong Un, there is considerable speculation as to whether North Korea is still playing its same game and raising the stakes, or whether the murky domestic politics of the power transition have resulted in more aggressive and less predictable outward behavior. Though South Korea and its chief ally, the United States, remain limited in their options for retaliation since the North's conventional weaponry could destroy the South Korean capital in the event of full hostilities, nevertheless they remain alert lest the North takes actions to further escalate the situation.
