ASSESSMENTS

Assessing Mexico's Post-Election Economic Outlook

Aug 1, 2024 | 20:24 GMT

Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum celebrates the results of the country's general election in Mexico City, Mexico, on June 3, 2024.
Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum celebrates the results of the country's general election in Mexico City on June 3, 2024.

(GERARDO LUNA/AFP via Getty Images)

Mexican President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum's pledge to pursue a constitutional reform that would overhaul the country's judicial and institutional systems could diminish Mexico's attractiveness as a destination for foreign investment at a time when the country stands to benefit from global supply chain restructuring. In recent weeks, president-elect Sheinbaun has promised to pass a wide-ranging constitutional reform that would affect labor rights, environmental issues, and independent government regulatory bodies, including the National Electoral Institute, among other agencies. Most importantly, the reform seeks to alter the federal judicial branch, including reform of Mexico's Supreme Court and the election of certain types of judges by popular vote. Some of these proposals have heightened domestic and foreign investor concerns about Mexico's institutional stability and predictability. For example, radical judicial reform would deter portfolio and especially foreign direct investors by making the legal environment less predictable at a time when geopolitically driven economic fragmentation, de-risking...

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