ASSESSMENTS

Assessing the Oil Market Volatility Caused by the Israel-Iran War

Jun 26, 2025 | 19:12 GMT

An oil tanker is seen at Saudi Arabia’s port of Ras al-Khair.
An oil tanker is seen at Saudi Arabia’s port of Ras al-Khair.

(GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP via Getty Images)

Crude oil prices have been volatile amid the conflict between Israel, Iran and the United States, and the fragility of the ceasefire means that the risk of further escalation could drive prices higher and raise the threat of a global economic slowdown. Just around the time the United States struck Iranian nuclear sites on June 22 against the backdrop of the latest Israel-Iran military hostilities, oil prices increased as much as 15% compared to early June amid fears the crisis could disrupt supplies from the oil-rich Gulf region. However, prices have since returned to pre-crisis levels following Iran's decision to conduct a widely telegraphed, limited attack on a U.S. base in Qatar in response to the United States' June 22 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (which was broadly seen as a move meant to de-escalate the conflict), as well as the announcement of an Israel-Iran ceasefire that took effect on...

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