Assessing the Prospect of Azerbaijan Invading Armenia

Despite the prospect of Azerbaijan seizing southern Armenia and the so-called Zangezur corridor by force, Baku is more likely to conduct comparatively smaller territorial incursions and cross-border shelling to pressure Armenia into an agreement. On Oct. 16, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of State strongly denied an Oct. 13 Politico report that Secretary of State Antony Blinken had warned a group of U.S. lawmakers that his department was tracking the possibility of Azerbaijan invading southern Armenia in the coming weeks. While the spokesperson stated the article was inaccurate and ''in no way reflects what Secretary Blinken said to lawmakers,'' the report added to preexisting speculation that a renewed Armenia-Azerbaijan war may be more likely than previously expected. ...