GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES

Avoiding War in the Middle East Could Begin in Lebanon: A Scenario

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Charles Glass
Board of Contributors

Sep 27, 2019 | 10:00 GMT

Israeli military vehicles burn after a Hezbollah missile attack in the disputed Shebaa Farms area of southern Lebanon on Jan. 28, 2015. The attack killed two Israeli soldiers and prompted an Israeli military response.

Israeli military vehicles burn after a Hezbollah missile attack in the disputed Shebaa Farms area of southern Lebanon in January 2015. Hezbollah uses Israel's occupation of Shebaa Farms as a pretext to keep its arsenal, claiming its weapons are needed to liberate the area.

(MARUF KHATIB/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • No one is certain whether Shebaa Farms actually belongs to Lebanon or Syria; the border was left a muddle after World War I, which has contributed to one of the Middle East's enduring flashpoints.
  • Israel's occupation of the territory is the pretext Hezbollah uses to maintain its arsenal, claiming its weapons are needed to liberate Shebaa Farms.
  • An Israeli offer to withdraw from Shebaa Farms could expose the real purpose of Hezbollah's armed wing in Lebanon and open the door to some pretty dramatic diplomacy.

Israel's new government, whatever form it ultimately takes, can move toward ending one war right now without firing a shot. At a stroke, Israel has only to offer to withdraw from a mere 5,000 acres of scrub that U.N. mediator Terje Roed-Larsen once called "a worthless piece of land." In this sequence of events, Israel's war with Hezbollah, which has brought it nothing but grief since its 1982 invasion of Lebanon, would be over. And there would be a bonus for Israel: Iran would lose the strategic threat of thousands of Hezbollah rockets pointed at Israeli cities. Deft diplomacy could then dismantle, one by one, other areas of confrontation between Iran and its adversaries -- among them Iran's nuclear program, the Yemen war and U.S. sanctions against Iran -- that threaten to engulf the United States in a regional war.  Let me explain....

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