In Azerbaijan, the dramatic decline of global oil prices has contributed to an economic slowdown. In 2015, Azerbaijan's GDP grew by only 1 percent, down from 2.8 percent in 2014 and 5.8 percent in 2013. The country has also had tremendous trouble with its currency, the manat, over the past year. In February 2015, the government devalued the manat by 33 percent. Ten months later, the currency plunged again at the end of December when the Central Bank of Azerbaijan shifted to a free float after spending more than half its currency reserves to prop up the manat. By the end of 2015, the manat had lost roughly half its value, simultaneously raising inflation, with the cost of some goods reportedly increasing by as much as 100 percent.
The Azerbaijani government has responded with several measures to address the weakening currency and broader economic slowdown. However, any cuts can be expected to lead to layoffs in the public and energy sectors, the latter of which has already seen hundreds of jobs slashed over the past year by firms such as BP and Azerbaijan's own state-owned oil company, SOCAR.
Protesters have taken notice. The same day the government announced it would reduce spending, several demonstrations were held across Azerbaijan in the districts of Lankaran, Fuzuli and Siyazan over the price hikes and growing unemployment resulting from the devaluation of the manat. These protests, which numbered from a few dozen to several hundred people in each city, have continued throughout the week. Security personnel were deployed to many of the areas, in certain cases detaining some of the protesters. In Lankaran and Siyazan there were minor clashes between security personnel and demonstrators. Meanwhile, the capital, Baku, has remained relatively quiet but no doubt has a sizable security force placed throughout the city to pre-empt possible protests.
Though Azerbaijan has been subject to protests in the past, they have typically been concentrated in Baku or nearby areas, such as Nardaran and Sumgait, and have largely been over political issues, mainly the government's treatment of opposition parties, journalists or religious groups. All have been, until now, manageable for the Azerbaijani government.
So far roughly several hundred to a thousand people in five to 10 cities and districts across the country have participated in the demonstrations. If the protests grow and spread to other cities, it could lead to a level of social and political pressure that Azerbaijan has not experienced in decades. Baku, the political and demographic core of the country, will be particularly important to watch, as will attempts by opposition groups such as the Musavat party to capitalize on the protests in an effort to gain new supporters and ratchet up pressure on the government.
