ASSESSMENTS

Azerbaijan's Interest in Georgia's Political Transition

Dec 27, 2012 | 11:00 GMT

Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili at a Nov. 22 press conference in Tbilisi

VANO SHLAMOV/AFP/Getty Images

Summary

Georgia's ongoing political transition could affect the entire Caucasus region and beyond. The country perhaps most concerned about Georgia's orientation is Azerbaijan, since Tbilisi's position toward Russia and the West could affect Azerbaijani oil and natural gas exports that run through Georgia.

On Dec. 26, Georgian Prime Minister Bidzina Ivanishvili visited Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, and representatives from both sides reaffirmed that the relationship between the two countries would continue, particularly in the energy sphere. However, after a significant win in the recent parliamentary elections, Ivanishvili's Georgian Dream Movement could fare well in local and presidential elections in 2013, which would help Ivanishvili consolidate power and possibly lead to major foreign policy changes in Georgia.

The new government in Tbilisi may pose problems for Baku's foreign policy strategy....

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