ASSESSMENTS

Back Under U.S. Sanctions, Iran Looks for a Plan B

Jul 23, 2018 | 09:00 GMT

A picture from March 2017 shows an oil facility on Kharg Island on the Iranian coast.

(ATTA KENARE/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Iran's strategy to get the European Union and other economic partners to push back against unilateral U.S. sanctions will fail.
As sanctions hit Iran's economy, the country will eventually have to resume negotiations with the United States, but it will try to wait until President Donald Trump leaves office.
In the meantime, Tehran will consider restarting its nuclear program as leverage in talks with the United States to keep other more important issues off the table.

The question of Iran's changing its response to the United States' withdrawal from the nuclear deal is no longer whether but when. Iran initially took a pragmatic approach to the news, predicated on other countries' willingness to push back against Washington and continue purchasing oil from the Islamic republic after U.S. sanctions go back into effect Nov. 4. But that outcome now looks unlikely. As a result, Iran will shift to a more aggressive response, including perhaps pulling out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and even restarting its nuclear program to gain leverage in future talks with the United States....

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