If Flavio Bolsonaro wins Brazil's October 2026 presidential race, his right-wing administration would dismantle much of the country's environmental framework, accelerate deregulatory measures on land use and environmental protection, likely reverse deforestation gains, limit Brazil's access to climate finance, and increase supply chain compliance risks. Several polls show that Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, is technically tied with, or numerically ahead of, the incumbent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the October election. If Bolsonaro wins the election, his right-wing populist administration would occasionally pursue controversial economic and social policies and demonstrate authoritarian tendencies, though it is unlikely to be as far-right as his father's. A Flavio Bolsonaro administration would likely subordinate the environment ministry to agribusiness and mining interests. Regulatory bodies would be actively defunded beyond the country's structural fiscal constraints, with the federal government making political appointments and directly interfering in sensitive...
