The Baltic States Turn a Wary Eye Toward Ukraine

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, collectively known as the Baltic states, are watching events unfold in Ukraine carefully. Their concerns over Russian actions there were expressed March 6 by Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaite, who said, "Europe must, first of all, realize that what Russia is doing now is an attempt to redraw the post-war … map and borders. So, first, it's Ukraine, Moldova will be next and, finally, it can reach the Baltic States and Poland." 

The three Baltic states are strongly integrated with the West economically and militarily and are in constant confrontation with Russia, which perceives the region's Western orientation as one of the greatest threats to its national security. The Baltics' criticism of Russia's actions in Crimea and calls for Western support of Ukraine stem from an interest not only in seeing Ukraine more tightly integrated with the West but also in getting the West to reinforce its commitment to the security of the Baltics. However, the Baltics have little interest in seeing the clash between the West and Russia escalate.

As the confrontation between the West and Russia over Ukraine (as well as Georgia and Moldova) drags on, the Baltic states will be affected more directly. The harder the West pushes against Russia in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, the more likely it is that Russia will react by destabilizing the Baltics economically, politically and socially, though Moscow's ability to greatly affect the Baltics is constrained.