For two decades Belarus has clung to the past. Led by President Aleksandr Lukashenko since 1994, the country's political system remains largely unreformed since the Soviet era. It has maintained a strong relationship with Russia, especially in military and security matters. Certain Soviet institutions, such as the KGB, endure in the country, and the economy is still largely controlled by the state. But change is inevitable even in Belarus. Spurred by the European Union's Feb. 15 vote to remove most of the sanctions on Belarus that have been in place since 2010, the country is undertaking a transformation that will affect its foreign policy as much as its economy.
Since the sanctions were lifted, diplomatic activity between Belarus and Western countries has noticeably picked up. An EU delegation of economic officials visited Minsk on Feb. 24 and discussed increasing financial and economic cooperation with Belarus. For Minsk, this is a welcome development because Belarus is in the middle of an economic slowdown. If not assuaged, the economic turmoil could compound public frustration with Lukashenko's government over perceived human rights abuses in the country. Consequently, Lukashenko later met with EU Special Representative for Human Rights Stavros Lambrinidis on March 9 and expressed his desire to increase ties with the European Union.
But Belarus' warming ties with the West trouble Russia. Since the 2014 Euromaidan uprising in Ukraine, when President Viktor Yanukovich was forced out of power after three months of demonstrations, Moscow has become more than sensitive to Western activity in former Soviet countries, particularly loyal ones such as Belarus. However, Minsk has yet to strengthen military ties with the West, opting instead to remain aligned with Russia on security matters. In fact, Belarus has spoken out against U.S. and NATO plans to build up forces in Eastern Europe. And though Minsk has so far resisted opening a Russian air base in its territory, if Belarus feels threatened by Western activity, it could amend its policies accordingly.
Belarus will continue to build its relationship with the West to counter its economic slowdown and pre-empt any Western designs to undermine the Lukashenko government. Minsk's efforts are bound to complicate its relationship with Moscow, creating even greater challenges for Lukashenko. Nonetheless, Belarus' transformation will progress, however gradually.
