U.S. President Joe Biden’s recent comments on Ukraine will not alter Russia’s calculus as an escalation of the conflict in eastern Ukraine and other measures to increase Moscow’s leverage vis-a-vis the West remain on the table, even if a full-scale invasion is improbable. At a Jan. 19 press conference, Biden predicted Russia would “move in” to Ukraine and suggested a “minor incursion” by Moscow could lead to Western countries “having to fight about what to do and not do,” appearing to confirm there was a gray area regarding the precise threshold for triggering U.S. and European response measures. Immediately following the conference, the White House issued a statement clarifying Biden’s comments, noting “any Russian military forces mov[ing] across the Ukrainian border” would constitute “a renewed invasion” and would “be met with a swift, severe, and united response from the United States and our allies.” But the U.S. president’s remarks have...
