ASSESSMENTS

The Blockade on Qatar Opens the Door for Competition

Aug 14, 2018 | 08:30 GMT

Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani (L) shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on July 15.

Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani (L) shakes hands with Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on July 15.

(YURI KADOBNOV/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Because Qatar has so far weathered the blockade against it without conceding to the demands of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt, the standoff will probably continue indefinitely.
  • The United States' neutrality in the dispute has helped Doha stay afloat, but as the blockade drags on, Qatar will continue to pursue relationships with other regional and world powers such as Turkey, Iran, China and Russia. 
  • The emergence of competing influences in the strategic Persian Gulf will compel the United States to re-assert its own sway in Qatar, unless Doha acts in a manner that alienates Washington, for instance by redoubling its support for the Muslim Brotherhood.

More than a year in, the blockade of Qatar by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Bahrain is no closer to achieving its goals. The participating countries embarked on the diplomatic and economic siege in a bid to change the Qatari government's behavior, including its support for the Muslim Brotherhood, an organization they consider a potent revolutionary threat to their continuity. It hasn't worked out that way, however. Qatar has weathered the storm with its economy and government intact, thanks in large part to U.S. support. Considering the effort's negligible progress, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has mused that the blockade could continue indefinitely, becoming, like the United States' multidecade blockade of Cuba, the new status quo. And if things keep going as they have been -- without causing enough harm to the U.S. alliance in the Persian Gulf to prompt Washington to intercede -- Salman's prediction...

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