Bolivia: Municipal Elections Reflect National Conflicts

Municipal elections in Bolivia on Dec. 5 likely will redraw the country's political map, sharpening political differences between highland indigenous Bolivians and lowland Bolivians mainly of European descent. The elections also could make it more difficult for President Carlos Mesa to manage conflicting political agendas between lowland and highland Bolivians, particularly if the lowland elites push harder for secession and possibly for annexation by Brazil. If this were to happen, the Bolivian armed forces likely would try to intervene, although the ethnic makeup of the armed forces probably would trigger internal splits such as those affecting highland and lowland business and political elites. This means the Bolivian armed forces might be unable to prevent the country's breakup if a constitutional assembly scheduled for 2005 does not heal the rifts.