In Border Dispute, India Tests Status Quo with Pakistan

The Indo-Pakistani border has seen an increase in violence over the past two weeks, and the two nuclear states are struggling to find a mechanism to de-escalate tensions while letting both governments save face. Domestic politics have changed the way New Delhi handles border violence, exacerbating the cross-border shelling that began in July 2014. Under the previous government led by the United Progressive Alliance, New Delhi worked with Islamabad through back channels. The two sides were able to manage border violence, especially as Indian and Pakistani border forces coordinated using established hotlines.

However, this joint management no longer exists. Domestic issues are forcing new Indian President Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP, to toughen its stance against Islamabad, while Pakistan's military is loathe to show weakness toward India in the midst of its own growing assault on domestic militants. While the conflict is likely to remain limited to shelling and bombardments of the cross-border area, the high levels of firing and poor communication between both sides significantly increase the risk of a miscalculation. Islamist militants will also seek to take advantage of the current situation to launch cross-border attacks against Indian targets, a development that would be difficult for New Delhi to ignore. Regardless, India will seek to maintain the status quo as long as it benefits its domestic politics.