Today, Myanmar's central government does not control most of the nation's borderlands. Instead, more than 20 armed ethnic armed groups — ranging in size from a couple hundred fighters to more than 30,000 — occupy pockets along Myanmar's borders, some claiming huge swaths of territory. In October 2015, the outgoing military-led government signed a cease-fire with eight militant groups. But several of the strongest ethnic groups — particularly a loose network of ethnic armies with valuable holdings along the Chinese border — were banned from the discussions. Seven other groups refused to join in solidarity.
After nearly 50 years of fighting, many of the ethnic armies are well armed and adept at guerrilla warfare. What is more, they control resource-rich, quasi-independent territories. For some, the profits of narcotics trafficking have superseded their political aims. Consequently, it is unclear what the government could offer to entice them to cede some control of their territories.
Compared with the military, though, the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD) is in a better position to rebuild trust between ethnic parties and the central government. Inevitably, politics will complicate these relationships. Since the new government took power in April, some ethnic parties have already become vocally disillusioned with its policies. Still, the advent of democracy in Myanmar, as marked by the NLD's historic victory in November 2015, will give ethnic groups a nonviolent means to address their grievances, critical to bringing a lasting end to the fighting. By inviting greater participation among Myanmar's multifarious population, the government will empower ethnic groups' political — rather than their paramilitary — wings. But it remains to be seen whether the holdout militias, and, more importantly, the military, will abide by a new political system.
