contributor perspectives

May 11, 2019 | 10:00 GMT

4 mins read

Building a Better Picture of Crime in Guatemala City

Board of Contributors
Lino Miani
Board of Contributors
Police inspect one of four buses attacked by alleged gang members July 13, 2018, in Guatemala City.
(JOHAN ORDONEZ/AFP/Getty Images)
Contributor Perspectives offer insight, analysis and commentary from Stratfor’s Board of Contributors and guest contributors who are distinguished leaders in their fields of expertise.
Highlights
  • Though crime zone data can be useful, its lack of precision creates some problems, since presenting an entire zone as safe ignores dangerous areas that exist in every sector, while presenting an entire zone as dangerous ignores lucrative opportunities.
  • While finding data on crime can prove challenging, in Guatemala City, it can be obtained from an unconventional and often-overlooked source: Package delivery services, taxi companies and fast-food restaurants that deliver have access to large data sets based on the direct observations of their staffs.
  • This type of information is increasingly common and may be available for any major city globally because mobile phones have increased the ease and quality of reporting and the compilation of geographic data, though it must be vetted for quality, consistency and currency.

Editor's Note: ­This security-focused assessment is one of many such analyses found at Stratfor Threat Lens, a unique protective intelligence product designed with corporate security leaders in mind. Threat Lens enables industry professionals and organizations to anticipate, identify, measure and mitigate emerging threats to people, assets and intellectual property the world over. Threat Lens is the only unified solution that analyzes and forecasts security risk from a holistic perspective, bringing all the most relevant global insights into a single, interactive threat dashboard.

Located in Central America's Northern Triangle, Guatemala is a natural chokepoint for the flow of illicit goods, particularly drugs moving from producer countries in South America to markets in North America. Political changes and the ebb and flow of the regional war on drugs during the past two decades have resulted in violent organized crime becoming entrenched in the daily life of the country's major cities. Some of the world's most violent criminal gangs now operate with relative freedom in Guatemala City, including the notorious Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) and Barrio 18, a local gang from the city's troubled Zone 18. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Guatemala's murder rate in 2018 was the 15th-highest in the world, with 27.26 homicides per 100,000 residents.

Violent Crime in and Around Guatemala City

Travelers to Guatemala City should note that the extreme violence associated with crime isn't limited to illicit drug activity. It trickles down to opportunistic crimes, such as robbery, which often affect visitors even in relatively safe areas. In fact, no area of the city is immune to criminal activity, not even upscale residential and commercial neighborhoods. Because of this, those living in or visiting Guatemala City should always take steps to minimize their vulnerability by moving in groups, using only trusted transportation providers, and practicing heightened situational awareness and caution after dark. More overt security measures, such as armed security details, are generally not necessary outside of high-threat areas known locally as red zones. Identifying and avoiding those areas, however, can prove challenging.

Threat information for Guatemala City almost invariably is communicated by zone, a reference to the 25 administrative areas and municipalities that divide the city. Census data shows incidences of homicide and "wounding" are most common in neighboring Mixco and Guatemala City's zones 1, 6, 7 and 18. The homicide rate is highest in zones 1, 3, 6, 8 and 16.

Guatemala City Violent Crime by Zone, 2018

Though the zone data can be useful, its lack of precision presents some problems. The city's divisions are large and diverse. Presenting an entire zone as safe ignores dangerous areas that exist in every sector. Conversely, some zones known to struggle with violence do have some well-developed, relatively safe areas that offer lucrative opportunities. Understanding where the red areas are within those zones and where they are not is as important to principals as it is to their security managers.

Finding this data can also be a challenge. But in Guatemala City, it is available from an unconventional source: Package delivery services, taxi companies and fast-food restaurants that deliver have access to large data sets based on the direct observations of their staffs. Most embassies, nongovernmental organizations and international corporations tend to overlook this treasure trove of knowledge. Not only do local drivers and deliverers interact with residents and businesspeople, they also observe the nature and safety of transit through all areas of the city. This makes their information up to date, comparatively precise and, thanks to the internet, sometimes available globally.

Two examples taken from a parcel delivery service in Guatemala illustrate this point. Zone 14, known as a relatively safe area, is home to diplomatic missions and upscale shopping, yet it contains two red zones. And Zone 18 is not completely prohibitive for local delivery services as one might expect in the home to Barrio 18, one of the world's most violent drug gangs.

Danger Areas in Zones 14 and 18

This type of information is increasingly common and may be available for any major city globally because mobile phones have increased the ease and quality of reporting and the compilation of geographic data. That said, there are no simple solutions. Data from local sources is only one tool in the box, but it can be incredibly useful if employed properly. Before using such data, however, it is important to assess its quality, consistency and currency. Security managers can and should use these sources to refine their analysis; at no point should it replace common-sense measures to minimize the vulnerability of travelers and others to crime.

Lino Miani is CEO of Navisio Global LLC and author of The Sulu Arms Market, an authoritative look inside the shadowy world of illegal firearms trafficking in Southeast Asia. He is a graduate of the Program for Emerging Leaders at the Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction at the National Defense University in Washington, an Olmsted Foundation scholar and president of the Combat Diver Foundation.

Connected Content

Regions & Countries

Article Search

Copyright © Stratfor Enterprises, LLC. All rights reserved.

Stratfor Worldview

OUR COMMITMENT

To empower members to confidently understand and navigate a continuously changing and complex global environment.

GET THE MOBILE APPGoogle Play