ASSESSMENTS

Can Mozambique Shield Its Energy Investments From Escalating Terrorism?

Aug 19, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi (left) and Mozambican National Resistance leader Ossufo Momade display the cease-fire agreement they signed in Maputo on Aug. 6, 2019.

Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi (center left) and Mozambican National Resistance leader Ossufo Momade celebrate the signing of a cease-fire agreement in Maputo on Aug. 6, 2019.

(STRINGER/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The ongoing Islamist insurgency in Mozambique's northernmost Cabo Delgado province is likely driven by the region's geographic and cultural isolation, as well as corrupt local institutions and other forms of oppression.
  • The government's recent peace deal with the militant Mozambican National Resistance may free up additional resources to help secure the region.
  • But should the government fail to fundamentally understand and address the drivers of conflict in Mozambique's far north, the violence will likely continue to escalate — possibly constraining investments in the country's emerging energy sector in the process.

Mozambique's government recently made headlines by signing a peace agreement with the longtime rebel group, Mozambican National Resistance. The deal has since been hailed as a harbinger for greater stability in the country. But a new insurgency in Mozambique's far north now poses a much greater threat, given its proximity to the East African nation's burgeoning offshore energy sector. Since late 2017, unknown assailants have attacked dozens of villages and some government positions in Mozambique's northern Cabo Delgado province. The attackers have yet to list any public demands, though there are rumors that they may have regional or international jihadist connections. But while much remains unknown, understanding the environment from which the conflict has emerged could provide hints as to what might be driving it -- and whether the government will be able to stop it before foreign oil and gas firms in the region start to pull their operations....

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