ASSESSMENTS

A Ceasefire Eases the Gaza War, but Leaves Embers To Ignite the Next One

Jan 15, 2025 | 22:05 GMT

People celebrate while watching news coverage of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 15, 2025.
People celebrate while watching news coverage of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 15, 2025.

(BASHAR TALEB/AFP via Getty Images)

A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will de-escalate the war in the Gaza Strip, but it will not address all drivers of conflict, and a lack of a post-war strategy for Gaza will over time erode the ceasefire and open the door to early elections in Israel. On Jan. 15, Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire to end their 15-month-long war in the Gaza Strip. The ceasefire deal, which gained momentum in recent weeks, has three distinct phases. The first phase will see an exchange of Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages, along with a retrenchment of Israeli troops around Gaza. The second phase will see the return of civilians to their homes in northern Gaza, as well as a significant withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Strip. Finally, in the third phase, Hamas will turn over the last remaining hostages, and Israel will hand over power in Gaza to a...

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