Central Asia's Increasing Volatility

In Stratfor's annual and quarterly forecasts, we noted that numerous factors will undermine the stability of Central Asia this year, including protests over worsening economic conditions, escalating militancy and growing tensions between countries in the region. Halfway through 2012, signs of destabilization have become visible in most Central Asian countries.

Although tensions in Central Asia are growing, most of the region's incidents this year have been isolated from one another. Moreover, several factors, such as Russian involvement, would make a broad regional conflagration unlikely. Tensions and security incidents primarily within — not among — regional countries pose the greatest risk to further destabilize Central Asia.