ASSESSMENTS

Changes Steer Beef Markets Toward the U.S.

Jul 12, 2017 | 09:00 GMT

Circumstances are looking positive for U.S. beef exports, as major producers such as Brazil and Australia struggle with constraints on their supply. But questions hang over the bilateral trade deals the United States must negotiate under the Trump administration.

The global beef trade is going through a major shake-up. The largest producer, the United States, has just opened the fastest growth market, China, to its products for the first time in 15 years. One of the top exporters in 2016, India, has passed legislation that could severely constrain its supply. Meanwhile, two other major producers, Brazil and Australia, are struggling with their own constraints. With so much dust in the air, much is still unclear, but the one obvious winner from these developments appears to be the United States.

(CHARLES McQUILLAN/Getty Images)

Forecast Highlights

  • Adverse developments among major beef-exporting countries have created an opportunity for the United States.
  • This opportunity is aided by the recent resumption of U.S. beef exports to China, which could lead to large increases over time.
  • Some of the U.S. ability to take advantage of the new opportunities in the beef trade will depend on its ability to sign bilateral trade deals after its withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. NAFTA renegotiations also will be important.

The global beef trade is going through a major shake-up. The largest producer, the United States, has just opened the fastest growth market, China, to its products for the first time in 15 years. One of the top exporters in 2016, India, has passed legislation that could severely constrain its supply. Meanwhile, two other major producers, Brazil and Australia, are struggling with their own constraints. With so much dust in the air, much is still unclear, but the one obvious winner from these developments appears to be the United States....

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