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Checking the Progress, So Far, of Stratfor's 2019 Forecast

Amelia Harnagel
Director of Analytic Client Solutions, Stratfor
Mar 12, 2019 | 04:30 GMT
A collage of images depicts the key geopolitical actors affecting events in 2019

How geopolitical events so far in 2019 align with -- and diverge from -- Stratfor's annual forecast.

(MANJUNATH KIRAN/SPENCER PLATT/DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS/MLADEN ANTONOV/JUSTIN SULLIVAN/ISSEI KATO/DAVID MCNEW/IGO ESTRELA/Getty Images

At Stratfor, forecasting is at the heart of what we do. It's what makes us different from the vast majority of media outlets that collate, filter and distribute information. Using geopolitics and intelligence-driven analytic techniques, our approach has been refined over decades to be accurate and repeatable. This may not be immediately obvious, but we have constructed a highly detailed model of the world, a sandbox into which we can pour myriad inputs and, through careful arrangement and observation, extrapolate critical developments and trends in the global system before they occur. Part of what makes us good forecasters is being honest with ourselves. We don't celebrate when we get something right, we stand back and make sure we understood why we made the call we did. If we get something wrong, we go back through our work to determine where we were off and use that information to refine our...

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