To achieve food security, China must feed its large population using its comparatively limited arable land and water resources. The difficulty of maintaining production is compounded by the growing demand for grain that accompanies accelerated urbanization, a growing middle class and spreading industrialization. These transformations have brought the country's annual grain consumption per capita to an average of 445 kilograms (981 pounds) — more than twice what it was three decades ago. This is expected to reach more than 500 kilograms by 2030. At the same time, small-scale agriculture and land ownership are important resources that sustain China's agricultural population, despite their low productivity and relative inefficiency.
Although historically prone to food shortages, China has not experienced one since Beijing implemented rural reforms in the 1980s. But the past decade has led to a number of changes that have stressed the agricultural sector. Domestic consumption has grown as large portions of the rural population have migrated to cities and no longer rely on cultivation for their livelihoods. The actual amount of arable land has also been reduced because of water usage and widespread soil deterioration across an area some estimate to total to the size of Belgium. The combination of these factors has led to questions as to the viability of China's self-sufficiency strategy and, ultimately, the nation's food security.
China's total grain production reached a record 601 million tons in 2013, continuing an eight-year growth trend. However, high production was accompanied by a surge in grain imports to 72 million tons — equating to more than 10 percent of annual domestic production. Soybeans have been one of the top imported staple crops since the early 2000s; currently, soybean imports account for 80 percent of domestic consumption. China also ceased to be a net exporter of corn in 2010; the amount of imported corn rose to seven million tons in 2013, or around 8 percent of its domestic consumption. If this trend continues, China will become the world's top corn importer by 2019.