With 130 trillion yuan in corporate debt outstanding, and much of that in short-term liabilities such as WMPs, the key danger is a crisis triggered in the money markets that keeps debtholders from rolling over their liabilities.
A year after the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned that a Chinese banking crisis was likely within three years, many of the flashing red indicators that led to the warning have disappeared. The most recent economic news has been more positive, featuring increased company profits and the reform of state-owned enterprises (SOE). In truth, though, such positivity should be met with skepticism. China may have successfully managed to stem its capital outflows and started coping with its huge debt pile, but the underlying problems remain almost as large as before. After the 19th Party Congress in November, China will have to address its issues in earnest. That process is likely to be fraught with risks....
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