ASSESSMENTS

China's Military Modernization Push Remains a Work in Progress

Apr 11, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

This photo taken on April 24, 2018, shows J-15 fighter jets on China's sole operational aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, during a drill at sea. Despite Beijing's military advances in recent years, Washington will have the upper hand over China for another decade at least.

(-/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Over the past 20 years, China has made tremendous progress in improving its military capabilities, but its modernization program will remain a work in progress in the decade to come.
China trails the United States in terms of nuclear attack submarines, the ability to conduct aerial refueling and a sufficient amphibious capacity, and it is unlikely to close the gap in the immediate future.
Beijing will continue to develop its capabilities on these fronts, but based on current projections, it will not reach parity with the United States by 2030.

There's no question that China has rushed forth at breakneck speed to modernize its military over the past few decades. With the second most powerful navy in the world, China has restructured its military, overhauled its command and control, introduced new capabilities and expanded its logistics. The country has advanced so far that U.S. officials warned in the 2019 Defense Intelligence Agency's "China Military Power" report that Beijing has grown more confident in its new capabilities and could start actively using them. Despite its impressive rollout of new weapons and the development of new capabilities, however, China isn't ready to close the gap on the United States just yet. Whether on nuclear-powered submarines, aerial refueling capabilities or the logistical ability to land a sufficient number of forces in Taiwan, Beijing still has plenty of work to do before it can finally attain some of its most cherished goals....

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