GRAPHICS

China's Prospective 2012 Military Leaders

Sep 22, 2010 | 18:39 GMT

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(Stratfor)

China is preparing for a power transition in 2012 that will see the "fifth generation" of Communist Party leaders rise to the top. Not only will China's civilian leadership change over, but so too will the military leadership, whose top members hold places on the Central Military Commission (CMC), which controls China's armed forces. While Vice President Xi Jinping is the clear choice for the 2012 presidency, current Chinese President Hu Jintao has not yet appointed him to lead the CMC — that appointment is expected to come sometime soon, most likely in October, at which point Xi's place as China's next top leader will be further secured. China's future military leaders show signs of increasing assertiveness on the domestic and international fronts, as well as a higher degree of professionalization and greater diversity in terms of their experience. The strategic missile corps, air force and navy will also be better represented on the CMC with fewer seats taken by the army — which has long been the dominant military branch. These other branches are increasingly important to China's national security as the country becomes more dependent on the international system, more active in its periphery, and more wary of the United States as it withdraws from the Middle East and South Asia and potentially devotes more attention to the Asia Pacific region.