A shift from coastguard to naval confrontations between Chinese and Philippine forces in the South China Sea raises the likelihood of direct conflict that, though stopping far short of a larger war, would significantly worsen already high maritime tensions. An escalation in maritime tensions is unfolding in the hotly disputed South China Sea, marked by increasingly bold Chinese naval actions and a surge in Philippine countermeasures. On May 5, two Chinese naval frigates and a coastguard ship confronted the Philippine navy's BRP Emilio Jacinto just 11.8 nautical miles from the contested Scarborough Shoal, which China seized by force from the Philippines in 2012. One Chinese frigate crossed the ship's bow in a high-risk maneuver, prompting a sharp rebuke from Manila, which condemned the action as "reckless and threatening," while Beijing insisted it had lawfully expelled an intruding vessel from its territory. The confrontation followed several incidents that have ratcheted up...
