ASSESSMENTS

The Cocaine Ties That Bind Colombia and Venezuela

Sep 12, 2018 | 09:00 GMT

A farmer shows cocaine base paste made from coca leaves at a clandestine farm next to the Inirida River in Colombia during September 2017.

A farmer shows cocaine base paste made from coca leaves in a "cambullon" (a small lab to produce the paste) at a clandestine farm next to the Inirida River, Guaviare department, Colombia, on Sept. 25, 2017. The illicit drug trade affects both Colombia and Venezuela.

(RAUL ARBOLEDA/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • South America's cocaine trade will directly and indirectly influence security developments in Colombia and political developments in Venezuela over the next several years.
  • In Colombia, the government's new policy of forcefully eradicating coca plants will worsen the ongoing competition among criminals, who could threaten oil and gas activities in central and eastern Colombia.
  • U.S. investigations of drug-related crimes by Venezuelan government officials will keep Caracas united for now, and the government will also emphasize the trade links that earn it export revenue and future loans.
  • Caracas will face a longer-term threat if bondholders and arbitration claimants demanding payment organize to seize the country's energy export, transport and refining assets.

Colombia and Venezuela share the problem of the illicit drug trade, but the ramifications of such trafficking could not be more different for the next-door neighbors. From the United States' point of view, Colombian criminality and Venezuelan authoritarianism are two looming foreign policy problems that are linked by the cocaine trade and that require vastly different solutions. In Colombia, a spike in rural violence is likely to occur in the coming years as criminal groups contest areas abandoned by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in its peace deal. Some FARC leaders will likely return to a life of crime, exacerbating the violence already occurring. Over the border in Venezuela, government officials -- some under investigation by U.S. authorities in cocaine-trafficking and money-laundering cases -- will band together in the face of increasing internal threats to cling to power and preside over a political and economic meltdown that will...

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