As peace negotiations between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia progress, the focus of talks will inevitably turn to cocaine. The militants' deep involvement in the production and smuggling of the drug will undoubtedly complicate the government's ability to give leaders of the group, known as the FARC, amnesty from prosecution as part of any peace agreement. But even if the government and rebels come to accord on how to handle criminal charges, the flow of cocaine out of Colombia is unlikely to decline, even in the short term. Consistently high demand abroad and domestic factors in Colombia will keep some cocaine production and trafficking networks to the United States operating unabated, though minor shifts in drug export patterns are to be expected.
There are many reasons to be optimistic about progress toward a peace deal with the FARC in 2015. But the biggest possible complication left in the talks is the FARC's deep involvement in drug trafficking. In the early 1980s, the rebel group turned to taxing coca growing, cocaine production and cocaine trafficking to fund its insurgency. Eventually, the group became directly involved in coca cultivation and cocaine production. By the late 1990s, the boost in funding from cocaine could be seen in the FARC's growing military strength and presence across the country. Though the Colombian military subsequently reclaimed vast swathes of territory during the early to mid-2000s, the rebel group has remained involved in the cocaine industry across the country.
This issue will continue plaguing Colombia beyond the current peace talks. The Colombian government will struggle to find a negotiated solution that involves pardoning select rebel leaders wanted on drug trafficking and kidnapping charges, mainly because the United States can still seek their extradition, even with clemency granted by Bogota. Colombia stated it would seek Washington's support for any agreement reached. Should the talks succeed, broader factors will keep Colombia a key drug-producing state for years to come — namely the strong U.S. demand for cocaine, the economic underdevelopment of coca-producing regions in Colombia and the deeply entrenched criminal networks, well-positioned to continue their current activities.
