ASSESSMENTS

In Colombia, Some Rebels May Be at the Mercy of the Military

Feb 11, 2016 | 09:16 GMT

In Colombia, the ELN's Chances for Peace Narrow
Demobilized members of the National Liberation Army hand over their weapons.

(STR/AFP/Getty Images)

Summary

While Colombia's peace negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) steadily approach their end, a second set of talks has yet to begin. The country's second-largest militant group, the smaller and militarily weaker National Liberation Army (ELN), has not opened formal negotiations with the state. But the guerrillas' survival depends on such talks; the Colombian government, with its superior military, does not need a negotiated peace as much as the ELN does. For its part, the ELN will probably try to open negotiations in 2016, but the movement's divisions and intransigence could eventually leave it at the mercy of Colombian security forces.

While Colombia's peace negotiations with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) steadily approach their end, a second set of talks has yet to begin. The country's second-largest militant group, the smaller and militarily weaker National Liberation Army (ELN), has not opened formal negotiations with the state. But the guerrillas' survival depends on such talks; the Colombian government, with its superior military, does not need a negotiated peace as much as the ELN does. For its part, the ELN will probably try to open negotiations in 2016, but the movement's divisions and intransigence could eventually leave it at the mercy of Colombian security forces....

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