ASSESSMENTS

A Contentious Year Awaits the EU in 2019

Nov 16, 2018 | 10:00 GMT

Members of the European Parliament vote during a plenary session on Nov. 14, 2018, in Strasbourg, France.

Members of the European Parliament vote during a plenary session on Nov. 14 in Strasbourg, France. Voters in the European Union will elect a new Parliament in May.

(FREDERICK FLORIN/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Pro-EU forces will remain in control of the European Parliament, but a strong performance by Euroskeptic parties will probably lead to fragmentation, making legislation harder to pass.
  • The appointment of the presidents of the European Commission and the European Central Bank will lead to friction between northern and southern EU member states over eurozone reform and monetary policy. 
  • Political weakness in some of the largest EU economies will open the door for smaller countries pushing to have their voices heard in negotiations for EU leadership posts.

2019 is shaping up to be an extraordinary year for the European Union. A few months after the United Kingdom leaves the union in March, the bloc will elect a new European Parliament. That election will be followed with the selection of a new European Commission and new presidents of the European Central Bank and the European Council. This will be the first time in EU history that posts and seats in so many key institutions have been filled in the same year. And while these changes will generate a new political order that will take the union into the next decade, they also will come as key states are appearing vulnerable and anti-EU strength is growing....

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