ASSESSMENTS

Coronavirus Is Coming for Nigeria -- and Its Economy

Mar 16, 2020 | 13:46 GMT

A photo of a security official administers hand sanitizer in Lagos, Nigeria, on Feb. 28, 2020. The city's 20 million residents scrambled for hygiene products following the announcement of the first confirmed coronavirus case in sub-Saharan Africa.

A security official administers hand sanitizer in Lagos, Nigeria, on Feb. 28, 2020. The city's 20 million residents scrambled for hygiene products following the announcement of the first confirmed case of coronavirus in sub-Saharan Africa.

(PIUS UTOMI EKPEI/AFP via Getty Images)

Highlights

  • The relative lack of international travel to and from sub-Saharan African countries has so far kept the region relatively isolated from the global coronavirus outbreak by limiting opportunities for transmission. 
  • But coronavirus cases are now expected to start spreading across sub-Saharan Africa in the weeks ahead, and when they do, the region's already constrained health care capacity will struggle to respond. 
  • Nigeria, in particular, will also be significantly impacted by the global economic fallout of coronavirus and the related drops in oil demand, which will likely force the country's central bank to devalue its local currency in the months ahead.

As the coronavirus pandemic seeps into more corners of the world, sub-Saharan Africa has so far come out relatively unscathed. But there are signs the virus is now starting to make its way across the vast region -- and as it does, Africa's most populous country and largest economy, Nigeria, could face some of the sharpest losses. Like most of its African peers, Nigeria has an extremely vulnerable and overtaxed health care system that could buckle under the weight of an outbreak. But even if Nigeria somehow evades a wider contagion, the growing number of coronavirus cases elsewhere in the world will still risk tipping the country into crisis by slashing demand for its vital oil exports....

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