Coronavirus Continues to Spread, But It Appears Less Lethal

On Jan. 29, Threat Lens laid out three scenarios for how the outbreak could be resolved, The Global Impact of the Wuhan Coronavirus: 3 Scenarios. At this point, the first scenario, which saw a timely response curbing the impact of the virus, appears to be increasingly unlikely. However, the third scenario, which saw a global pandemic with a low death rate, appears to be playing out. The public health threat is likely to ebb by the end of February, but the disruptions associated with travel restrictions and extended business closures in China can be expected to continue into March and possibly April....