ASSESSMENTS

The Cost of an Expanded Russian Campaign

Oct 12, 2015 | 09:30 GMT

A video grab made on Oct. 6 from footage on the Russian Defense Ministry website allegedly shows an airstrike by a Russian Su-24M bomber in Syria.

(RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY/AFP/Getty Images)

The start of Russian airstrikes in Syria has given new hope to loyalist forces in their battle against a host of rebel factions, including the Islamic State. Now comments out of Baghdad and Moscow suggest that Russia may expand these operations into Iraq if requested to do so by Baghdad. Indeed, from its position in Latakia, Russia has the range to strike Islamic State targets in Iraq, although further deployments of resources may be required to do so effectively. Expanding these operations to Iraq would, however, put Russian forces in the same battlespace as U.S. troops -- which may well be Russia's goal. Russia's strategy, both in the Syria conflict and in planning possible operations in Iraq, is essentially to pressure the U.S. position and force Washington into high-level negotiations. This puts Baghdad -- as well as Iran, which has been active in the Iraqi theater as well -- in a...

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