Could Clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh Trigger a Wider Conflict?

The dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh has flared up again. While tension along the contact line has occasionally erupted into skirmishes for years, the fighting that began April 2 could develop into a wider conflict. Azerbaijan is attempting to forcibly take more territory in the hopes of undermining Armenia's hold on the area and of forcing it to make concessions. But Armenia and Russia, its ally on security matters, might not be as willing to let Azerbaijan, however incrementally, expand without some response.

And while other regional powers inching into the Caucasus — mainly Russia, Iran and Turkey — may try to curb fighting by backing a cease-fire, their own competitions could complicate matters. Azerbaijan has already begun diplomatic efforts to prevent the battle over Nagorno-Karabakh from escalating into a war, but whether the measures will succeed remains to be seen. Stratfor provides the following selection of previously published analyses as context for understanding the recent developments in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.