Economic projections of the quarterly impact of COVID-19 on major economies are increasingly pessimistic as more bad news comes in on countries already past the peak of the epidemic, and the effect of national lockdowns on those still suffering. The International Monetary Fund now projects a global recession in 2020 that is "at least as bad as during the global financial crisis or worse."
In China, which was affected first and now seems to be in recovery, it will still take time to bring business activity up to normal, especially as exporters struggle with an unknown level of global demand destruction. Other remaining unknowns include how wide COVID-19 will spread in the United States, whether it is a seasonal disease, and the still-untested ability and capacity of many health care systems to respond effectively. Due to these uncertainties, it is still not possible to quantitatively gauge the long-term impact of the...
