A COVID-19 Surge Sets Back India’s Economy

India’s emergence as the world’s largest COVID-19 hotspot more than a year into the pandemic threatens to derail its recovery from last year’s deep recession, setting back development and poverty reduction efforts for years to come. The government’s desire to avoid nationwide lockdowns and severe economic effects has forced Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to rely instead on the problematic strategy of using vaccinations to overcome the pandemic. Growth will be positive, but downside risks to robust forecasts are materializing and an incomplete or delayed government response threatens the outlook and will affect the Modi government’s ability to pursue needed reforms and avoid political unrest....