Guidance

COVID-19: Where Most See Crisis, Some See Opportunity

Thomas Abi-Hanna
Global Security Analyst, Stratfor
Mar 19, 2020 | 15:38 GMT
This photo shows a lone Pakistani soldier patrolling the Line of Control, the de facto border between Pakistan and India, in Pakistan-administered Kashmir on Aug. 29, 2019.

A soldier patrols the Line of Control in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. In recent days, the Pakistani army has launched a series of attacks against Indian forces along the de-facto border region.

(AAMIR QURESHI/AFP via Getty Images)

As the coronavirus pandemic monopolizes more of the world’s time, money and attention, the latest surge of violence in Kashmir between India and Pakistan highlights the potential for countries to act more aggressively with less scrutiny. But state actors aren't the only ones who will be tempted to capitalize on the current chaos. As more governments become bogged down by the virus and the economic fallout from containment efforts, jihadist groups and other non-state actors will also have the opportunity to advance their positions in security hotspots around the world. This could not only raise the risk for military escalations in those areas in the short term, but could allow militias to resurge once the global health crisis eventually subsides....

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