Whether Cuba will soon undergo an economic revolution depends more on politics in Washington than in Havana. After all, the only thing standing in the way of unrestricted trade between the world's largest economy and the island nation just 145 kilometers (90 miles) south of it is an embargo that rests on U.S. law. But after U.S. voters choose a new president in November, and perhaps change the makeup of the Senate and House of Representatives, the U.S. Congress could begin discussing the embargo's end.
Lifting the long-standing sanctions against Cuba will be easier said than done, though, especially given the lingering controversy over Havana's thawing relations with Washington. Nevertheless, the topic of lifting the 1960 trade embargo will be up for debate during the next U.S. presidency. Cuban President Raul Castro is scheduled to transfer power to his successor (most likely civilian politician Miguel Diaz-Canel) in 2018. In doing so, Cuba will meet one of the United States' preconditions for lifting the embargo: having an administration without a Castro in it. But even with Castro's departure, the structure of the Cuban government is unlikely to change enough to comply with the Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act, one of the most important pieces of U.S. law presently upholding the embargo. The law, also known as the Helms-Burton Act, stipulates that U.S. recognition of the Cuban government would require the disbandment of several Cuban intelligence and security institutions, the establishment of an independent judiciary, and competitive elections. Yet it is unlikely that any Cuban administration — even one in financial straits as dire as those the Diaz-Canel government would face — would agree to such a massive overhaul in exchange for the embargo's end. Instead, Havana will probably try to negotiate with Washington, vowing to make some adjustments to its political structure in exchange for partial sanctions relief. Such relief, however, could be found only if Congress agreed to repeal most — if not all — of the act in question.
Cuba may not be able to weather the embargo for much longer, though. The government's coffers are draining quickly, thanks to a steady decline in subsidized Venezuelan shipments of crude oil and refined fuels. Havana has had to make up the difference with funds from its own pocket and with austerity measures aimed at reducing domestic energy consumption. So far, low oil prices have somewhat cushioned the blow. But as oil prices creep back up, pressure will rise on Havana to seek economic relief by removing the embargo unless tourism revenue increases enough to close its budgetary gap.
