Since 1960, India and Pakistan have abided by the Indus Waters Treaty, an agreement developed by the United Nations to govern the use of water along the Indus River and its main tributaries. But in the wake of an attack on a military base in the Indian-administered area of Kashmir, and a subsequent cross-border raid into Pakistan's portion of the territory, disputes over the Indus River basin have resurged. Pakistan disagrees with India's plans for hydropower projects along the Indus, while the government in New Delhi is threatening to review the terms of its arrangement with Islamabad. The odds that the treaty will be formally dissolved — or even violated — are low, though the sound and fury over the agreement could obscure a far graver danger.
Islamabad has objected to many of India's proposed hydropower projects over the years, citing the potential to disrupt Pakistan's water supplies. But Pakistan faces a far greater threat to its economic livelihood than India's hydroelectric ambitions: water scarcity and stress in the Indus River. Pollution and a large (and growing) population have conspired to diminish Pakistan's per capita water supply, which fell below the official line of water stress in 2009. At the same time, demand for water is expected to surge by as much as 30 percent there by 2025. Hydrological stations in Pakistan indicate that the country's supply of water from the Indus River dropped by 5 percent between the treaty's enactment and 2014. Because of limited storage along the Indus River Basin, Islamabad has a cushion of only about 30 days' worth of water to fall back on in the event of a disruption to the river system.
This bodes ill for Pakistan's agricultural sector and, in turn, its economy. Cotton is Pakistan's top export by value, and the Indus River, which supplies the largest contiguous irrigation network in the world, supports more than 75 percent of Pakistan's total irrigated acreage. All cotton, rice and sugar cane fields in the country depend on irrigation, as do most wheat fields. India's activities and actions along the Indus River Basin are unlikely to permanently interfere with Pakistan's irrigation capacity. And though the recent incidents in Kashmir seem to have renewed discord between India and Pakistan over the Indus Water Treaty, the agreement will almost certainly survive. Still, water scarcity will be the far greater danger looming over the Indus basin, posing a serious threat to Pakistan's economy in the long term.
