COLUMNS

A Decisive Moment for China Draws Nigh

Aug 22, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

The 2019 Beidaihe meeting of Chinese officials was thought to have started on Aug. 3.

Each summer, China's political gather for an annual meeting in Beidaihe, roughly 300 kilometers east of Beijing.

(SIMON SONG/South China Morning Post via Getty Images)

Highlights

  • Following this year's annual gathering of political elites in Beidaihe, China’s response to the ongoing protests in Hong Kong, as well as the next phase of its trade war with the United States, could soon take shape. 
  • China's tougher stance in trade negotiations is likely an attempt by its leaders to appear strong against Washington — the country's most formidable external threat for the foreseeable future. 
  • That approach risks drawing even more U.S. trade salvos, which could further damage China's already slowing economy and increase the likelihood of social instability in the country's wealthier coastal and urban areas.
  • Domestic economic and political unease will compel China to further solidify control over its buffer regions, a driver that could tempt Beijing to directly intervene in Hong Kong's political crisis. 

Nearly 70 years after its founding, China has once again found itself at a historic crux. As Beijing's rivalry with the United States grows increasingly hostile, its future relations with Hong Kong hang in balance -- all while the country grapples with an economic slowdown that risks thwarting its past 30 years of unrestrained expansion. Suffice it to say, China's political leaders had their plates full when they gathered in Beidaihe this year for their annual meeting, which reportedly just wrapped up.  But while China has faced similar internal threats over the decades, its leaders are unlikely to find answers in past precedent this time around. And that's because the economic and political challenges the country faces are happening in a vastly different domestic context. Any speculation or leaks come from this year's summit won't provide all the answers to the complex challenges Beijing's leaders now face both at home and abroad....

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