The Demise of Nigeria's Islamist Leader?

The Nigerian military announced Aug. 19 it had received intelligence that Abubakar Shekau, the leader of Islamist militant group Boko Haram, died from gunshots wounds sustained during fighting in June. Shekau is believed to have died between July 28 and Aug. 3 while seeking treatment in Cameroon. Officials have not offered evidence of his death, and rumors that Shekau was killed have circulated before. Boko Haram has not issued a response.

Shekau's death, if true, would not necessarily change the dynamics of the conflict in Nigeria's northeast. Boko Haram is a decentralized group made up of several factions, including Islamic jihadists, a political militant organization, and a grassroots insurgency. Since each of these factions launches attacks under the Boko Haram banner for its own reasons, the death of one person — even its titular leader — would not cripple the group. Indeed, Boko Haram endured the death of one leader in 2009, and Boko Haram was deadlier in 2012 than in any previous year. Moreover, much of the conflict between the central government in Abuja and the northern rebels has its roots in political and socio-economic grievances, and those grievances will persist whether or not Shekau leads Boko Haram.