Recent concerns about China's growth outlook notwithstanding, China and other emerging Asian economies' rising share of global output will continue to come almost entirely at the expense of Group of 7 (G-7) countries, meaning that global economic power, or at least income shares, will shift toward East Asia and, less so, South Asia in the coming decades. Despite a flurry of recent media coverage on China's economic challenges, projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other forecasters illustrate a long-term trend of shifting economic output from the West to the East. In the 1980s, the world's leading industrial nations in the G-7 (the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom) accounted for 50% of global GDP on a purchasing power parity basis. But as of 2022, G-7 countries' share of global output had fallen to 30%. By contrast, emerging and developing economies today comprise almost...
