Russia and Ukraine’s belief that they can win the war, coupled with Moscow’s goals of regime change and occupation and the strong political pressure Kyiv faces against making concessions, mean that a diplomatic solution to the conflict is unlikely in the near term. On March 3, Russia and Ukrainian delegations met for another round of negotiations to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While a cease-fire was discussed, it will probably not happen in the near future. Moscow likely believes that Ukrainian armed resistance can be broken in a matter of weeks, and that its increased seizure and occupation of Ukrainian towns and cities will assure its control over any negotiations. Kyiv, meanwhile, is betting Russia doesn’t want to conduct an expensive and potentially high-casualty seizure and occupation of Ukraine, and that if Ukrainian forces are able to maintain control of major cities, Moscow will eventually soften its demands and make...
