Djibouti occupies a key position on the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a choke point for goods and energy resources moving between the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean through the Suez Canal and Red Sea. This makes the country an important partner for powers in East Africa and outside the region. The Port of Djibouti's critical trade and military role, as well as the bases Djibouti directly leases to U.S. and French forces, mean that the interests of more powerful international players dominate the nation's trajectory far more than internal power politics do.
Ethiopia is the main regional power with an interest in Djibouti's politics. The Port of Djibouti functions as landlocked Ethiopia’s main outlet to the sea — a role Djibouti has occupied since Ethiopia's 1991 loss of Eritrea and the Red Sea coast. China is also directly involved in the Port of Djibouti through the state-owned China Merchants Group, which has purchased part of the port terminal operator. China's interest in Djibouti transcends the benefits of being involved in East African regional trade — roughly one-half of the port's container traffic is in transshipment due to Djibouti's position as the only reliable port with significant infrastructure along the main shipping lanes between Europe and the Gulf and between Asia and the eastern coast of Africa.
The United States and France stand out among the nations with military interests in Djibouti because both lease onshore military installations. The United States uses Camp Lemonnier as its main forward-basing facility to support operations on the African continent and in other nearby regions. Such operations include the ongoing anti-terrorism efforts in Somalia and Yemen and the recent evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in South Sudan. The United States also maintains an unmanned aerial vehicle base outside of Camp Lemonnier that provides significant regional surveillance and strike capability. France, Djibouti's former colonial ruler, still has about 1,900 troops stationed in the country — the largest concentration of forward deployed French forces in Africa.
Were Djibouti to undergo radical changes as a result of internal instability or regime change, it is possible that stronger players with a defined interest in Djibouti such as Ethiopia, the United States and France would intervene in the country’s politics to defend their critical interests.
