The Effects of Modern Ideology on Forecasting and Analysis

The true believer can be the hardest to believe. When a person, let alone a state, promises radical policies, the initial reaction of the seasoned analyst is usually incredulity. At RANE, we start our analysis with the rational actor model: leaders and states are self-interested, and self-interested politicians accept constraints and trade-offs, knowing that such measured approaches to strategy and policy are most likely to succeed at the least risk to themselves. But ideology throws a wrench in the rational actor model because ideologues do not always accept constraints -- some even seek to break past them. As the post-Cold War assumption that democratic capitalism was the inevitable future continues to weaken, we're witnessing the assertion of alternative ideologies that prioritize neither democracy nor capitalism....