Egypt Forced to Negotiate on Nile Dam

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi will travel to Addis Ababa on March 23 to address Ethiopian lawmakers before traveling to Sudan to sign an agreement on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The details of the agreement are unknown, but its aim is to balance Ethiopia's economic interests with Egypt's national security concerns. Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan agreed March 6 on preliminary governing principles on Nile water cooperation. This followed a Feb. 21 decision by Egypt to return to the Nile Basin Initiative, a group it had boycotted for five years.

Ethiopia's dam could jeopardize Egypt's access to the Nile — access that is critical to sustaining Egypt's population and economy — because it would give Addis Ababa the power to curb Nile water flows. Egypt needs guarantees this will not happen. However, the division of the Nile and its tributaries (the Blue Nile and the White Nile) between nine different states makes a stable agreement extremely difficult. Until recently, Egypt's tactic was to push Ethiopia to cancel the dam altogether — the only surefire way for Cairo to guarantee the secure flow of the Nile. With the project now 40 percent complete, Egypt must shift gears and pursue a solid agreement, even if it is one that it cannot be sure will last forever.