ASSESSMENTS

Egypt Hopes the Benefits of Economic Reform Outweigh the Risks

Oct 28, 2016 | 10:12 GMT

Egyptians buy sugar from a truck in Cairo. The government is struggling to keep stores stocked with subsidized goods.
Egyptians buy sugar from a truck in Cairo. The government is struggling to keep stores stocked with subsidized goods.

(KHALED DESOUKI/AFP/Getty Images)

Forecast Bullets

  • Economic reforms will stir up opposition across the socio-economic spectrum, but it will not become a credible threat to the government. 
  • Egypt will continue depending on foreign aid despite its desire for a more independent foreign policy.
  • Security threats will magnify the need for economic stability and social assistance and will undermine trust in the government.

The details of Egypt's ambitious economic reform measures are not settled, but the plan is already mired in controversy. The International Monetary Fund has deemed Egypt's financial position untenable and has made a new loan package contingent on change. Among other things, this means Cairo must implement further painful reforms to fuel subsidies, as well as tax increases and spending cuts -- none of which are popular with entrenched interest groups or with a population beleaguered by high poverty rates. But even as popular pressure mounts, the government cannot afford to turn back -- either literally and figuratively -- lest it risk reversing the progress made so far. Pushback from the disaffected public will continue, but it will not spawn a massive protest movement like those that brought down President Hosni Mubarak or the Muslim Brotherhood. Even if President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has lost the shine he had when he...

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